Sometime between early January and early March 1991, a decision will be made by the United States government to go to war in the Middle East (with or without the approval of Congress or the authorization of the United Nations). That is now the most probable scenario in the Persian Gulf crisis, unless a political solution is found.
A decision to take offensive action earlier is unlikely, being militarily and politically premature. A decision later would be very difficult, as it would run into the Islamic holy month of Ramadan and the season of heat and windy sand storms on the Arabian Peninsula. While any incident could provoke hostilities at any time (and such an incident could even be contrived), the most likely time for war to begin is in the first 60 days of 1991.
The chilling reality must now be squarely faced -- if no political settlement to the Gulf crisis emerges, we will be at war within three months.
George Bush has made such an enormous military and political commitment in the Persian Gulf that U.S. withdrawl at this point is politically impossible. President Bush is escalating the public rhetoric against the Iraqi leader and psychologically preparing the nation for war. Saddam Hussein has also put his personal leadership and political future on the line and is similarly unlikely to back down. He is in a corner from which there is no easy escape and seems to be looking for a way out despite his bellicose public posture.
Because the administration has shown little interest in negotiating a way out, we must conclude that the White House believes a decisive and relatively quick U.S. military victory is possible. However, even under the best of scenarios, the Pentagon estimates that the number of American deaths would be in the tens of thousands and Arab casualties (especially civilians) in the hundreds of thousands. The U.S. government shows no real recognition of the long-range ramifications of an American-led, mostly Western war on Arab soil -- one that is likely to draw in Israel and very possibly lead to the use of both chemical and nuclear weapons.
Long-term instability and conflict is the most probable result of war, with the likely further downward spiraling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the potential undermining of moderate Arab states from within, and the prospect of the United States being drawn into protracted counterinsurgency warfare for years to come with the growing forces of Islamic nationalism and fundamentalism. If bloody and destructive war comes to the Middle East, "what the Americans did to the Arabs" will be remembered in the Arab world long after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait is forgotten.
THE GROWING OPPOSITION TO the war option in the United States has been extremely important in disrupting the officially claimed public consensus of support for U.S. policy. However, protest is no longer enough. The Bush administration would not, and politically probably could not, simply withdraw from the political and military commitment it has already made.
Nothing short of an alternative to war will resolve the present conflict. Such an alternative must face the fundamental issues at stake in the Gulf, accomplish the legitimate goals of the world community in resolving the crisis as expressed in the U.N. resolutions, address the needs of the conflicting parties, and allow both George Bush and Saddam Hussein a way out. Any viable political solution must also address the wider issues that have emerged in this crisis, as well as the unresolved conflicts and questions that lie beneath it.
In other words, the political and moral alternative to war must include the resolution, or at least a process toward the resolution, of the short-, medium-, and long-term problems revealed in this crisis. For example, the alternative must secure the withdrawal of Iraq from Kuwait and address the perceived grievances Iraq has with Kuwait in their territorial and economic disputes.
Agreements would also have to be reached concerning the effective international monitoring, control, and eventual elimination of the threat posed by chemical and nuclear weapons in the region, as well as the reversal of the arms traffic and build-up that has turned the Middle East into an arsenal with a hair trigger. A framework to ensure regional stability must be established by moving quickly toward a genuine political process to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as other unresolved conflicts and issues that continue to confound the prospects for Middle East peace and will lead to one conflict after another.
But no diplomatic initiatives for the resolution of this volatile and increasingly dangerous conflict are forthcoming from the Arab World (the most important place for a solution to emerge), from the United Nations, or from other parties such as the Europeans or the Soviets. And in the absence of an alternative, we will soon be at war.
Therefore, the churches must be called to take new action and accept a critical mission at this historic juncture. The churches must help initiate an alternative to war and assist in surfacing the viable and urgently needed political options that will enable us to avoid enormous bloodshed and world catastrophe. To do so at this moment is both a political necessity and a moral imperative.
The religious community itself must be mobilized behind an alternative, thus creating the spiritual force to make a solution possible. At this critical moment, the religious community could be a catalyst for the emergence of a peaceful political option.
Sojourners Community hears this mission as a call upon our life at this historical moment. We are already in dialogue with other church leaders and communities about what that might mean. We here sound that same call to the wider community of our readers and friends throughout the churches and beyond. If that broad ecumenical constituency were to respond with prayerful imagination, creativity, and courage, perhaps an alternative to war might be helped to emerge. Most likely, we should all be getting ready for a major mobilization in the early part of the new year, or earlier if necessary.
We do not know what the outcome of such efforts might be. We do know, however, that if nothing is done, war will be the inevitable outcome, and soon. So we must act now in faith and hope and in the trust of a God who moves beyond what we can possibly accomplish. At this moment, the peaceful resolution of the Gulf crisis will take a miracle. That miracle must be acted and prayed into being.
Jim Wallis is editor-in-chief of Sojourners.
Got something to say about what you're reading? We value your feedback!