Methods for Preventing Political Violence and Mass Atrocities

A MAJORITY OF faith-based organizations have only one mission—to shepherd their adherents through life. However, these congregational mechanisms of faith can also be utilized for conflict early warning and early response (EWER). For decades, peacebuilders have used EWER systems to identify and analyze conflict trends, alert to conflict risk, inform decision-making, and initiate timely responses to prevent violent conflict.

In fact, religious bodies, particularly churches, are an emerging frontline of conflict early warning and early response. Churches are highly local with deep roots in communities. They build “organic” intra- and interfaith mechanisms that can mobilize to prevent political violence at the source. Faith-based early warning systems are a valuable tool for identifying emerging signs of community violence and for controlling in-group members to quell political violence. My research shows this is as true in Sri Lanka and Nigeria as it is in the United States.

Over the years, the field of conflict early warning has evolved from formal international institutions to more community-based mechanisms capable of preventing violence using local knowledge. Early warning systems have successfully prevented political violence and mass atrocities.

Here are five key pillars (the “5Rs”) of early warning systems: deliver the right information, at the right time, to the right stakeholders, in the right format, for the right action.

In practice, this is similar to “see something, say something,” except local stakeholders, like churches, organize to identify early signs of hate speech and interpersonal and politically motivated violence, and they develop faith-based or other localized approaches to transform violence to peace by monitoring rumors; identifying community sentiment; engaging in de-escalation through use of scripture, negotiation, and dialogue skills; mobilizing intra- and interfaith associations; and drawing on the collective political power of their communities and congregations.

For the United States, conflict early warning systems cannot come soon enough. Our schools are experiencing unprecedented levels of violence. School shootings, hate crimes, and politically motivated mass shootings—such as in Buffalo, N.Y., earlier this year—have increased, and so has the number of domestic violent extremist groups. These groups are attempting to “localize” hate by showing up, often with weapons, in public libraries, town councils, and school board meetings.

In June, the Department of Homeland Security issued a reminder that the U.S. “remains in a heightened threat environment” from domestic violent extremists and names as potential targets “faith-based institutions, schools, racial and religious minorities ... and perceived ideological opponents.”

The Trust Network, the first nonpartisan conflict early warning system in the U.S., is particularly concerned about school-related violence this fall. Organized, politically motivated groups are threatening teachers and school boards with political violence in response to “critical race theory” and for merely investigating threats received by school boards.

Moms for Liberty (MFL), founded in 2021 with headquarters in Melbourne, Fla., is at the forefront of these disruptions. In fall 2021, an MFL chapter posted a threatening message on social media directed to anyone backing President Joe Biden’s review of school board threats and violence: “Not a single person on the right side of the aisle better be backing this, if they are they better be prepared to be REMOVED 1776 style.” (The “1776” reference to the American Revolution often implies the threat of political violence.) Although Moms for Liberty is not the only factor in this spike in harassment, the group grew in membership during the same period that school board members and teachers faced an increase in threats, according to Media Matters.

As communities of faith, we condemn all forms of violence and hate. As peace-promoting congregations, we ensure all voices are heard and have their rightful place in society, whether or not we agree with them. We do our utmost to create spaces for nonviolent communication and model peaceful resolution of conflict. For this, we turn to our scriptures for guidance. We reach out to those who are conflicted and advise them that they have no reason to resort to violence and upset the peace our communities have long enjoyed.

Many of the current global conflicts have a religious dimension. Early warning and early response systems that harness religious stakeholders to coordinate preventative action at the local level are critical for any successful peacebuilding effort. Churches can take proactive steps to secure their congregations and communities by participating in conflict early warning and early response programs. Interfaith councils, ministerial boards, and shared mission projects are all a reservoir for effectively securing peace. In this way, our religious communities can contribute to an effective positive peace in our country now. Violence has a strategy—but so does peacebuilding.